Lindy’s College Football magazine is out, and hopefully the BGA in-box will soon have the venerable magazine’s predictions for the Ivy League race from someone who has order the publication (or who flipped through it at their local Piggly Wiggly).
In the meantime, here’s an overview of what Massey Ratings predicts for Dartmouth and the Ivy League. Keep in mind that while Lindy’s does at least some research into personnel, Massey does none. on returning and graduated players. Per an On3 explanation of the Massey Ratings (LINK):
Early-season ratings require about five games per team to become accurate. To produce reasonable early-season ratings, the model incorporates results from the previous two seasons as starting points. These initial values gradually lose influence as the current season progresses.
That said, here’s how Massey sees the Dartmouth season playing out:
New Hampshire 25, Dartmouth 24 (51 percent confidence in result)
Dartmouth 30, Central Connecticut 21 (75 percent)
Dartmouth 28, Penn 27 (52 percent)
Yale 28, Dartmouth 26 (52 percent)
Dartmouth 27, Fordham hm 24 (60 percent)
Dartmouth 27, Columbia 20 (69 percent)
Harvard 28, Dartmouth 21 (66 percent)
Dartmouth 28, Princeton 21 (71 percent)
Dartmouth 31, Cornell 21 (75 percent)
Dartmouth 31, Brown 24 (69 percent)
Here’s how Massey sees the Ivy League season finishing, with Yale going unbeaten:
Yale 7-0 (10-0)
Harvard 6-1 (8-2)
Dartmouth 5-1 (7-3)
Columbia 3-4 (5-5)
Penn 3-4 (5-5)
Cornell 2-5 (4-6)
Princeton 2-5 (3-7)
Brown 1-6 (2-8)
Here’s the probability for Dartmouth records per Massey:
0-10 – 0.1 percent
1-9 – 0.7 percent
2-8 – 2.7 percent
3-7 – 7.5 percent
4-6 – 14.5 percent
5-5 – 20.6 percent
6-4 – 21.9 percent
7-3 – 17.7percent
8-2 – 10.1 percent
9-1 – 3.6 percent
10-0 – 0.7 percent
And finally, here are the FCS ratings for each Ivy League team as well as Dartmouth’s nonconference opponents. There are 128 teams rated with South Dakota State topping the ratings and the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley edging out Stetson for the last spot.
34 - Harvard
41 - Yale
47 - Dartmouth
59 - Penn
60 - Columbia
69 - Princeton
81 - Cornell
86 - Brown
32 - New Hampshire
77 - Fordham
90 - Central Connecticut
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EXTRA POINT
Dartmouth sent out a release about season-ticket renewals and I had to laugh when I read that one of the benefits for season-ticket holders is: "Optional, no interest monthly payment plan (up to three months).”
Season tickets last year were $110 for chairback and $70 for sideline reserved bench seats.