Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Statistically Speaking

An emailer yesterday questioned what was wrong with the stats above. Because they are based on per-game averages, and that requires playing in 75 percent of the Ivy League season, the answer is nothing.

Dartmouth sophomore Nick Schwieger was recognized by the NCAA as the Ivy League's leading rusher with 78.2 yards per game because he appeared in eight of Dartmouth's full complement of 10 games (80 percent, obviously). But Schwieger played in just four Ivy games (57.1 percent), so his 386 yards and average of 96.5 yards per game doesn't appear on this list. Also missing is quarterback Greg Patton, who had 317 rushing yards in his three appearances (42.9 percent), a 105.7-yard average.

All that is understood because the rushing leaders are recognized on a per-game average. And as Dartmouth SID Rick Bender astutely pointed out, you cannot simply factor in zero yards for the necessary games to get the two players up to the 75 percent threshold because the possibility exists they could have had minus rushing yards in the phantom games.

Receptions per game, however, are a different animal. It is not possible to have "minus" receptions for a game, and that brings us to Dartmouth sophomore wide receiver Michael Reilly. After a strong start with eight catches in the two non-conference games that opened the season (including UNH when he was lost to injury in the first half) Reilly missed the Penn and Yale contests.

He returned in time to have two catches against Columbia, six against Harvard, nine against Cornell, three against Brown and six against Princeton. Add them up and that's 26 catches in five games, or 5.2 per game. That would have placed him fifth in the Ivies – if he had the minimum-required six appearances.

Ah, but as we said before, you can't have negative catches per game, so let's give Reilly zero catches for his phantom sixth game. That would drop his average to 4.3, but still leave him eighth in the Ivies for catches:
All this isn't to petition for Reilly to be counted among the Ivy League's receiving leaders per game. He's probably not the only player who would move into the stats under similar circumstances. But just think about the havoc that loophole could play on the national scene.

This year's early decision recruiting class won't be announced until later this month and the regular recruiting class until spring. But that doesn't stop the recruiting services from already connecting Dartmouth with some targets for next year. Among those are a 5-foot-6, 146-pound back from Oakland and a 6-5, 238 tight end from Massachusetts.

Football Scoop is reporting that Princeton is interested in former Dartmouth assistant Pete Lembo, who had a glittering 44-14 record at Lehigh and has gone 5-6, 7-4, 8-4 and 9-3 this fall building Elon into an FCS powerhouse. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if Holy Cross head coach Tom Gilmore and Maryland assistant Don Brown (both former Dartmouth assistants with experience around the Ivies) have also drawn some interest.

Lest anyone think Dartmouth football is the only program to take the occasional hit in the media, the WHRB sports blog reprises a quote from Doug Gottlieb, color commentator for the Big East Network, after Harvard's Jeremy Linn scored 30 points in a 79-73 loss to No. 14 UConn. Said Gottlieb:
"It's one thing to get career high against Dartmouth, it's another vs UConn."

No comments: