Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Of Rankings, Ratings And Polls

Sagarin, the wise guys and Massey Ratings all like Dartmouth's chances this week against Towson.

While Sagarin has Towson ranked higher overall, it makes Dartmouth a two-point favorite with help from the three-point, home field allowance. Massey has Dartmouth winning by a 24-22 score with 54 percent certainty. And the wise guys have the Big Green a 4.5 point favorite as of Tuesday morning.

How the wise guys see this week:
Dartmouth by 4.5 over Towson
Princeton by 14.5 over Brown
Penn by 13.5 over Columbia
Cornell by1 over Sacred Heart
Harvard by 11.5 over Holy Cross
Fordham by 15.5 over Yale
James Madison by 8 over New Hampshire

How Massey sees Dartmouth's chances of winning remaining games (score in parentheses):
Towson 54 percent (24-22)
at Columbia 84 percent (17-7)
Harvard 31 percent (24-17)
at Cornell 67 percent (23-16)
Brown 86 percent (30-14)
at Princeton 52 percent (24-23)
Teams of interest in this week's polls:

20. Harvard
26. New Hampshire
44. Penn
50. Cornell

15. Harvard
25. New Hampshire
The NCAA also links to the Simple Ratings System, which looks like this for the entire FCS:
2. Dartmouth
4. Harvard
15. Penn
29. Towson 
32. Yale
35. Princeton
40. New Hampshire
48. Holy Cross
58. Brown
83. Columbia
105. Cornell

Green Alert Take: You kind of have to wonder about a system that has an Albany team ranked in the top 20 by both STATS and the Coaches way down at No. 93 ;-) 

It's never a good thing when an opposing player from your previous game wins a national honor.

Yale tailback Alan Lamar has been selected the STATS national Freshman Player of the Week. (LINK) Lamar carried 23 times for 180 yards and two touchdowns against Dartmouth after not running from scrimmage even once in the first three games.

(For what it's worth, Lamar and Yale will be facing STATS national offensive player of the week Saturday when they play Fordham. All Rams' back Chase Edmonds did against Lafayette last week was run for 359 yards and four touchdowns on – wait for it – just 17 carries.)
For a report on Week 5 Dartmouth opponent Towson's loss to Stony Brook last week, check out Towerlight.
And finally, the New Haven Register chimes in on a controversy surrounding the cover of Yale's football program celebrating 100 years of Yale-Dartmouth games. (LINK)