Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Looking Ahead, Looking Back

The offshore Wise Guys have chimed in regarding this week's games. Here's where they started things off:

Penn is favored over Dartmouth at Franklin Field by seven points.
Princeton is a 15-point favorite at home against Columbia.
Brown is a 10-point underdog at home against Rhode Island.
Cornell is a 10.5-point underdog at home against Colgate.
Harvard is a 14.5-point favorite at Georgetown.
Yale is a 6.5-point favorite at Fordham.

Elsewhere among Dartmouth opponents:

Holy Cross is a 24-point favorite at home against Lafayette.
Sacred Heart is a 9-point favorite at home against Central Connecticut.
Valparaiso is a 15-point favorite at home against Stetson.

Massey sees the week this way:

Penn 28, Dartmouth 20 with 73 percent confidence in Penn
Princeton 30, Columbia 14 with 86 percent confidence in Princeton
Rhode Island 28, Brown 20 with 73 percent confidence in URI
Colgate 31, Cornell 21 with 77 percent confidence in Colgate
Harvard 21, Georgetown 3 with 90 percent confidence in Harvard
Yale 35, Fordham 33 with 54 percent confidence in Yale

Holy Cross 39, Lafayette 17 with 93 percent confidence in Lafayette
Sacred Heart 33, Central Connecticut 28 with 64 percent confidence in Sacred Heart
Valparaiso 33, Stetson 21 with 79 percent confidence in Valpo

Out of curiosity I went back and checked how the Wise Guys (with their early picks) and Massey fared last week.

Actual: Dartmouth 27, Holy Cross 26
Wise Guys: Holy Cross by 3.5
Massey: Holy Cross 24-23 with 51 percent confidence
Bottom Line: If Holy Cross makes its PAT Massey is looking good at Holy Cross 21-20.

Actual: Yale 49, Cornell 24
Wise Guys: Yale by 14.5
Massey: Yale 35-27 with 73 percent confidence
Bottom Line: Wise Guys were more confident in Yale than Massey.

Actual: Harvard 45, Brown  28
Wise Guys: Harvard by 9
Massey: Harvard 21-13 with 74 percent confidence
Bottom Line: Both undervalued Harvard.

Actual: Penn 65, Lehigh  47
Wise Guys: Penn by 3
Massey: Penn 35-33 with 54 percent confidence
Bottom Line: Neither appreciated how much Lehigh is struggling.

Actual: Princeton 38, Lafayette  17
Wise Guys: Princeton by 24
Massey: Princeton 38-14 with 93 percent confidence
Bottom Line: Are they cribbing of each other?

Actual: Columbia 35, Georgetown 14
Wise Guys: Columbia by 7.5
Massey: Columbia 16-7 with 79 percent confidence
Bottom Line: Massey's confidence was well-placed.

Actual: Campbell 49, Stetson 21
Wise Guys: Campbell by 7.5
Massey: Campbell 27-24 with 54 percent confidence
Bottom Line: Advantage Wise Guys.

Actual: Bucknell 34, Sacred Heart 31
Wise Guys: Bucknell by 3
Massey: Bucknell 21-20 with 51 percent confidence
Bottom Line: Wise Guys nail it.

Green Alert Take: It's all pretty silly but this might give you a sense about how much credence you should put in how the prognosticators think things will go

Green Alert Take II: I'd be curious about how the algorithms these service use to work up their numbers because clearly they can't know specific details about every team, but apart from the Dartmouth-Holy Cross barn burner, they got 'em all right. The points were off but the winners were spot on, which is the only thing that matters to most of us.