Thursday, November 20, 2025

To the Playoff or Not to the Playoff? That is the Question

No game notes posted yet so we lead off today with what the Wise Guys think this week.

Per FanDuel, Dartmouth is favored at Brown by 7½ points.


Also . . .

  • Harvard is an 8½-point favorite at Yale.
  • Penn is a 4½-point home favorite against Princeton.
  • Cornell is a 7½-point home favorite against Columbia.
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The boiling hop topic for the next few days is Dartmouth's chance to land an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs.

To start, here's what Craig Haley of StatsPerform wrote (LINK). And yes, italics are mine. ;-)

The Ivy League’s first-ever automatic bid to the FCS playoffs will go to the winner of No. 8 Harvard (9-0, 6-0) at Yale (7-2, 5-1) – the 141st edition of The Game, but first played 150 years ago on Nov. 13, 1875. Harvard would surely get an at-large bid if Yale claims the auto-bid. If the Crimson complete a perfect season, the door could open for Dartmouth (7-2, 4-2) to gain an at-large bid, as it owns wins over Yale and fellow playoff hopefuls New Hampshire and Central Connecticut State.

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FCS Football Central on SI.com sees the Ivy League playoff picture this way (LINK):

Locks: Harvard


Harvard moves into "Lock" status after a dramatic win over Penn, moving the Crimson to 9-0 overall. Even if the Crimson loses to Yale this weekend, a 9-1 Harvard team will still have the resume to make the field as an at-large. With a win, the Crimson will have a solid case to receive one of the final Top 8 seeds at 10-0 overall. Harvard would also win the Ivy League championship outright with a victory on 


Should Be In: None

Work To Do: Dartmouth, Yale


Yale is the only team in the conference that can make the field as an auto bid. A win over Harvard would earn the Bulldogs a share of the conference title and secure an automatic bid to the playoffs. With a loss, Yale would be eliminated at 7-3 overall.


Dartmouth got some much-needed help this weekend and is on a trajectory to possibly be one of the last four teams in the field. The Big Green will face Brown this weekend and have a chance to finish 8-2 overall. They also hold a head-to-head win over New Hampshire and the potential NEC champion in Central Connecticut State. They will still need some help, but don't overlook this team making the field on Selection Sunday.

The biggest change since last week is Harvard's moving into the "Lock" category.

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A reporter for WDAY-TV, the ABC television affiliate in Fargo, N.D. predicts good news for Dartmouth if Harvard defeats Yale (LINK): 

• Sacramento State (7-4) at UC Davis; win and likely in, lose and out

• UC Davis (7-3); win and in, lose and will be sweating

• Northern Arizona (7-4); win and in

• William and Mary (7-4); win and hope

• New Hampshire (7-4); win and be right on the bubble (possibly team number 25)

Dartmouth (7-2); win and in (they have win over NewHampshire

• Youngstown State (7-4); win and in

• North Dakota (7-4); win and in (Have win over Youngstown)

• South Dakota State (7-4); win and in

• Austin Peay (7-4); win and in

This site, like several others, has Dartmouth facing off against Rhode Island with the winner going on to play No. 6 Tennessee Tech.

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A word of caution for those who consider the Dartmouth-Yale debate for an at-large bid a slam dunk based entirely on the Big Green defeating Yale on a 51-yard field goal with no time left. This from Stewart Mandel, editor-in-chief of college football coverage for The Athletic is with regard to the FBS playoffs but is worth considering:

I’ve always felt head-to-head results matter, but they come in all shapes and sizes. Going to another team’s stadium and beating them carries more weight with me than beating them at home. Losing on a last-second field goal is a lot more excusable than losing by 21. 

Green Alert Take: Dartmouth's wins over New Hampshire (7-4) and likely playoff team Central Connecticut (7-4) are surely of greater value than Yale's wins over Holy Cross (2-9) and Stonehill (3-8). The Big Green's final nonconference win over Fordham (1-10) doesn't help the resume and Yale's loss at  Lehigh (11-0) shouldn't be that damaging.

Green Alert Take II: This year's schedules were made up before the Ivy League knew it would be allowed to participate in the FCS Playoffs. It will be interesting in coming years to see if any of the schools move to play a more difficult schedule to improve either their seeding as Ivy champion, or chances for an at-large bid to the playoff.

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A link to this full Dartmouth Visited (1956) video popped into my in box yesterday. While this site has posted a link to this film before, this time around we'll go directly to perhaps the most interesting part  for visitors to this electronic precinct:


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EXTRA POINT

Speaking of my "in" box, an email arrived from a local fuel oil rewards program this week offering a little help at the pump. The subject line of the email read:

Did you remember to use your 10¢/gal bonus?

We didn't forget. We'll be stopping by in the next week or so to gas up the 1984 VW poptop camper bus before putting it away for the winter.

And the next time we buy gas? Being EV drivers, that won't be until we pull the VW out of storage in the spring and take it on its first long drive of 2026. ;-)