Eight opponent previews totaling more than 11,000 words have already gone up on BGA Premium with the Princeton outlook being posted today and the series ending with Yale tomorrow. More importantly, with the first official Dartmouth practice slated for tomorrow afternoon the preseason coverage kicks off tomorrow night. If you haven't signed up or renewed your subscription you are going to have a lot of catching up to do to get up to speed. CLICK HERE to get going!
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Something a little different today as we dive into the Massey Ratings, one of the most prominent computer ratings services, which actually predicts every game prior to the season (with adjustments over the course of the year). Here's how Massey sees Dartmouth's season turning out with the "confidence" in Dartmouth winning each game in parentheses:
at Dartmouth 37, Valparaiso 13 (93%)
Dartmouth 24, at Sacred Heart (79%)
Dartmouth 24, Penn 17 (74%)
at Yale 26, Dartmouth 24 (47%)
Dartmouth 24, New Hampshire 21 (60%)
Dartmouth 28, at Columbia 24 (60%)
Dartmouth 24, Harvard 21 (55%)
at Princeton 26, Dartmouth 24 (46%)
Dartmouth 27, at Cornell 21 (64%)
at Dartmouth 31, Brown 23 (71%)
So, you may be asking, how accurate could Massey be? Glad you asked. Here's how Massey saw last year's season going, followed by how the games actually turned out:
Massey: Dartmouth 31, Valparaiso 14 (87%)
Actual: Dartmouth 28, Valparaiso 18
Massey: Dartmouth 28, Sacred Heart 16 (80%)
Actual: Dartmouth 41, Sacred Heart 3
Massey: Dartmouth 24, Penn 23 (51%)
Actual: Dartmouth 31, Penn 7
Massey: Dartmouth 26, Yale 24 (54%)
Actual: Dartmouth 24, Yale 17 (OT)
Massey: New Hampshire 27, Dartmouth 20 (33%)
Actual: Dartmouth 38, New Hampshire 21
Massey: Dartmouth 28, Columbia 21 (66%)
Actual: Columbia 19, Dartmouth 0
Massey: Harvard 26, Dartmouth 24 (47%)
Actual: Dartmouth 20, Harvard 17
Massey: Dartmouth 24, Princeton 21 (59%)
Actual: Dartmouth 31, Princeton 7
Massey: Dartmouth 24, Cornell 20 (61%)
Actual: Dartmouth 41, Cornell 7
Massey: Dartmouth 27, Brown 25 (53%)
Actual: Dartmouth 52, Brown 31
Green Alert Take: About all you can take out of this is that Massey doesn't like to predict routs or high scoring games, huh?
So how does Massey see the Ivy League season playing out this fall? Here are the final standings per his computer:
1. Harvard 6-1, 9-1
1. Yale 6-1, 8-2
3. Dartmouth 5-2, 8-2
3. Princeton 5-2, 8-2
5. Brown 3-4, 5-5
6. Penn 1-6, 4-6
6. Columbia 1-6, 4-6
6. Cornell 1-6, 2-8
Massey sees Dartmouth nonconference opponents finishing this way:
Valparaiso 8-3
Sacred Heart 7-4
New Hampshire 5-6
Harvard – 48Dartmouth – 50Princeton – 60Yale – 63Columbia – 73Penn – 74Brown – 78Cornell – 83
As for Dartmouth's other opponents:
New Hampshire – 58Sacred Heart – 99Valparaiso – 120
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While we are at it, here are the venerable Sagarin Ratings, the best-known computer service, which ranks 261 teams:
Dartmouth – 133Harvard – 137Princeton – 143Yale – 157Penn – 192Columbia – 194Brown – 211Cornell – 221
As for Dartmouth's other opponents:
New Hampshire – 193Sacred Heart – 205Valparaiso – 257
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FootballScoop has been ranking the 15 most important FBS assistant coach hirings since last year and the No. 1 hire has a double Ivy League pedigree – alum and former head coach. Cornell's Jim Knowles is now defensive coordinator at Ohio State after moving over from Oklahoma State. From the story (LINK):
The date was Dec. 23, 2009, when Jim Knowles's life changed for the better.
Knowles was 45 years old at the a time, and a month prior he'd finished his sixth season as the head coach at his alma mater, Cornell. The 2009 season wasn't a good one. The Big Red went 2-8 (losing all eight games after a 2-0 start), dropping Knowles's mark to 26-34 overall and 16-26 in Ivy League play.
To that point, Knowles had spent the entirety of his adult life in college football but just one of them at a Power 5 institution.
But it just so happened that the one year Knowles spent in the big time, 2003, was on David Cutcliffe's staff at Ole Miss. . . .
And so when Mike McIntyre left Cutcliffe's Duke staff to become the head coach at San Jose State, Cutcliffe pursued Knowles as his replacement. The pitch likely wasn't a difficult one -- an escape hatch from a moribund program to the ACC, certainly with a raise to boot.
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EXTRA POINT
As the golf writer at the newspaper I used to cover the 54-hole New England Open pro golf tournament held at one of our local clubs. Before the tournament began the staff at the club would conduct what they called "The Ceremony of the Keys," where they literally took the pro shop keys away from the head professional. A terrific golfer who would go on to win on the PGA European Seniors Tour, he very much wanted to win the premier event in New England at his own club and his staff knew all of his concentration had to be on the course and not on selling hats and putters and swing training aids.
This isn't a perfect parallel, but as I sit here this morning with two more Ivy League previews to finish, the first Dartmouth football practice tomorrow and the attendant freelance writing deadlines looming, I realize it's time for "The Ceremony of the Kindle." Like the local golf pro of yore, I know my digital library book has to be put aside while I turn 100 percent of my attention to the work at hand for the next three months. I never did get to read that Grisham I'd been waiting on . . .
By the way, Sports Illustrated had a great story about our former golf pro and how when he was hitchhiking from Vermont to Los Angeles as a young teaching pro he made sure he went through Latrobe, Pa., where by happenstance he ended up showering and having breakfast in the home of the town's most famous resident, and no, we're not talking about the then CEO of Rolling Rock. Check out the amazing story HERE.
