Using the Sagarin, Massey and SP+ ratings, SI's FCS Football Central worked up an analysis of how conferences in the subdivision "stack up against each other." (To give the ratings meaning looking ahead to 2025, FBS-bound Delaware was not included and Patriot-League-bound Richmond was shifted to its new conference.)
Here's how the ratings turned out (LINK):
Missouri Valley 21.8
Big Sky 19.0
United Athletic Conference 14.3
Ivy League 13.9
SoCon 13.6
CAA 12.7
Big South-OVC 12.0
Southland 10.6
Patriot League 9.6
MEAC 6.3
NEC 3.4
SWAC 2.9
Pioneer 0.0
Regarding the numerical grade for each conference, the column has this explanation:
The power rating of each team in each conference was averaged to give the conference an overall measure. Then the lowest conference was made to be 0, which means a rating of "15" indicates that the average team in that conference is 15 points better than the average teams in the worst FCS conference.
Green Alert Take: Huh?
According to the data, there is a pretty clear tier structure of FCS conferences entering next season.
Tier 1: MVFC, Big Sky
Tier 2: UAC, Ivy League, SoCon, CAA, Big South-OVC
Tier 3: Southland, Patriot League
Tier 4: MEAC
Tier 5: SWAC, NEC
Tier 6: Pioneer League
Interesting that the Ivies are in the same tier as the CAA.From the story:
One notable result is that the Ivy League ranked No. 4 among FCS conferences and will participate in the FCS Playoffs next season. While the conference does not have a true national title contender, they do have multiple teams who could compete for an appearance in the quarterfinals. The profile of the conference is very similar to the SoCon, CAA, and UAC.
Here's the unfortunate kicker for Dartmouth (and Columbia) fans coming off championship seasons:
As an interesting exercise, we projected what last season's playoff field would look like if the committee only used the combined power rating and conference affiliations for next season.
Big Sky (5): Montana State (AQ), UC Davis, Montana, Idaho, Northern Arizona
Big South-OVC (2): SEMO (AQ), UT Martin
CAA (2): Rhode Island (AQ), Villanova
Ivy (2): Harvard (AQ), Yale
MVFC (4): North Dakota State (AQ), South Dakota State, South Dakota, Illinois State
NEC (1): Central Connecticut State (AQ)
Patriot (1): Richmond (AQ)
Pioneer (1): Drake (AQ)
SoCon (2): Mercer (AQ), Chattanooga
Southland (2): Incarnate Word (AQ), Stephen F. Austin
UAC (2): Abilene Christian (AQ), Tarleton State
Green Alert Take: Sorry to bury the lede after having you try to process all of the above, but while I post Massey's predictions each week during the season, they aren't worth much. Sagarin is marginally better and I have no idea about SP+. The FCS Football Central column is fun to ponder but I wouldn't put much (if any) faith in it as painting a realistic picture.
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If you've been paying attention, you know that I regularly rail against the bulleted, "How it Happened" style of reporting that more and more colleges – including Dartmouth – now use for basketball and other recaps:
Here's an exercise for you. Go to the Dartmouth report on the Big Green women's loss to Cornell on the school website HERE and read about the game. Try to get a feel about how the contest went.
I copied what was in that How it Happened posting word-for-word and asked ChatGPT to turn the information it presented into an interesting narrative. Now – if you did what I asked and read what was on the Dartmouth web page – check out what AI came up with below. (If you haven't yet read the original How it Happened posting, I encourage you to go back and look it over before you read the story below.)
As an editor, I'd spend some time with what follows, but it's certainly a lot more interesting than what was on the web page.
It was a cold Friday night in Hanover, but inside Leede Arena, the Dartmouth women’s basketball team was looking to turn up the heat against Ivy League rival Cornell.
With a tough schedule ahead, the Big Green aimed to defend their home court and build momentum. But despite a strong effort, Dartmouth couldn’t overcome a sluggish second quarter, falling 60-48 to the Big Red.
Victoria Page set the tone early, drilling a three-pointer to open the game and another to put Dartmouth up 11-6 midway through the first quarter. The Big Green were moving the ball well, and when Alexandra Eldredge hit a jumper at the buzzer, it was all knotted up at 13 after ten minutes of play.
Then came the second quarter—where everything changed. Cornell came out firing, scoring the first eight points before Dartmouth could even get on the board. Clare Meyer finally broke the drought with a layup, and another basket from her cut the deficit to four, but the Big Red had an answer for everything. By halftime, Dartmouth found itself trailing 28-19, needing a spark to claw back into the game.
Page provided that spark in the third, wasting no time with a three-pointer just 11 seconds into the half. She stayed aggressive, scoring seven quick points to get Dartmouth back within striking distance. The Big Green fought to within two points on multiple occasions, highlighted by a dazzling and-one layup from Zeynep Ozel with 1:50 remaining in the quarter. The energy inside Leede was palpable, but Cornell refused to surrender the lead, taking a 41-37 advantage into the final frame.
The fourth quarter belonged to the Big Red. They opened with an 11-2 run, extending their lead to 52-39 with just over four minutes to play. Dartmouth couldn’t get closer than 10 the rest of the way, as Cornell’s efficiency—52% shooting on the night—proved too much to overcome.
Despite the loss, there were bright spots for the Big Green. Page led Dartmouth in scoring for the 14th time this season with 16 points. Meyer had a well-rounded performance with 10 points, six rebounds, and a career-high four assists. Ozel also reached double figures with 10 points. Olivia Austin dominated the glass, securing 11 rebounds, including six on the offensive end—tying a career high.
All 48 of Dartmouth’s points came from the starting lineup, a testament to their consistency but also highlighting the need for a deeper scoring punch. The Big Green shot 35.7% from the field and struggled from long range, hitting just 4-of-16 from beyond the arc.
With little time to dwell on the loss, Dartmouth must regroup quickly. Less than 24 hours later, they take the court again, this time hosting Columbia on Alumnae Day. It’s another chance to defend their home floor, and with the lessons learned against Cornell, the Big Green will be looking for a bounce-back performance.
Green Alert Take: The winner? AI by a knockout.
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ESPN write about the brother of former Princeton football player Tiger Bech (LINK):
TCU wide receiver Jack Bech was selected MVP of the Senior Bowl on Saturday, catching the winning touchdown pass a month after his brother died in the deadly pickup truck attack in New Orleans.
And . . .
Bech wore his brother's No. 7 during Saturday's game, and the clinching TD came with seven seconds remaining.
Wow.
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EXTRA POINT
On the negative side – literally – it was 13.1 degrees below zero this morning when I sent Griff the Wonder Dog out to take care of business before eating his breakfast. (And yes, I sent him out by himself, stood inside the door and welcomed him back seconds later.)
On the positive side, sunset last night here in West Newbury, Vt., crossed an important plateau. It came at 5:00:21. We've still got a long way to go but there's something about seeing a 5 instead of a 4 next to sunset time that makes me smile.
